Dynamically Optimal Strategies for Managing Resistance to Genetically Modified Crops

Fangbin Qiao; James Wilen; Scott Rozelle

doi:10.1603/0022-0493(2008)101[915:DOSFMR]2.0.CO;2

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1 June 2008 Dynamically Optimal Strategies for Managing Resistance to Genetically Modified Crops

Fangbin Qiao, James Wilen, Scott Rozelle

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J. of Economic Entomology, 101(3):915-926 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1603/0022-0493(2008)101[915:DOSFMR]2.0.CO;2

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model of the evolution of pest a population and pest resistance to characterize the socially optimal refuge strategy for managing a pest’s resistance to genetically modified crops. Previous theoretical economic analyses of this problem focus on steady states; we also address refuge policies along the optimal path to the final equilibrium. To elaborate on our theoretical analysis of the resistance problem, we develop a simulation model calibrated to cotton (Gossypium spp.) production in China. Our results show the importance of fitness cost as a determinant of the qualitative nature of optimal refuge policies.

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Fangbin Qiao, James Wilen, and Scott Rozelle "Dynamically Optimal Strategies for Managing Resistance to Genetically Modified Crops," Journal of Economic Entomology 101(3), 915-926, (1 June 2008). https://doi.org/10.1603/0022-0493(2008)101[915:DOSFMR]2.0.CO;2

Received: 4 January 2007; Accepted: 15 January 2008; Published: 1 June 2008

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